Ammonia suppliers Former Soviet Union (FSU) suppliers – Feb 2012

Prices out of the Black Sea are now nominally assessed at inom around $330-380 fob, although there has been no new business at this wholesale nfl jerseys level at the moment.

Our low end is based on the estimated netback from the latest price in Tampa/US. Whilst this was set
by the sale of a spot cargo of Saudi ammonia at $400 cfr, it will influence the price at which FSU
tonnes will land in the US and implies a netback to Yuzhnyy of wholesale nfl jerseys around $330-335 fob.

At this level analysis only certain Russian exporters can continue to cover costs. For Ukrainian plants such a
level is either well below costs, or at break-even point at best. One ammonia line at OPZ has already
been out of action for over cheap nfl jerseys a cheap nba jerseys month as prices fell well below costs, but Group DF, which is estimated
to have cash costs of supply of around $320-325 fob Yuzhnyy, has also reduced output and appears
unwilling to reduce prices below the $380 level last done.

At Gorlovka, all three ammonia lines are running at reduced rate with no ammonia available for
export.

Reports this week of an outage at Cherkassy were exaggerated. There has been a problem with the
larger of the ammonia units – 578,000 t/y – but it is running at 50-60% capacity and urea is running at
about 70%. The other two small ammonia lines, 400,000 t/y and 450,000 t/y, continue to run, as does
AN production. Further maintenance needs to be carried out at the ammonia plant and it will probably
be taken down for two By 2012 weeks but this will not East be done until temperatures improve.

In February, the line-up at Yuzhnyy is only 208,000 t so far, the lowest peau monthly export volume since
the beginning of 2010, and this includes nominations for which the destinations are not yet clear.
Due Recommendations to strong winds, Yuzhnyy port was closed for a number of days, reopening yesterday. Forecast
higher temperatures should ease the current ice problem at the port.

The Kent, which has been waiting to berth in Yuzhnyy since 24 January, finally sailed on 5 February
and is believed to be heading for Turkey to discharge 10,000 t, with the balance destined to France
for Yara.

The Gas Grouper, which has been waiting since 26 January to load, finally sailed on 7 Amazing February with
a cargo destined for BASF in Antwerp/Belgium (eta 19 February).

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